Tuesday, December 22, 2020

A short pour

 Today’s post will be mercifully brief; it’s about things the current administration has done OK.  First, they finally called “Bullshit” on Red China and actually backed it up with meaningful sanctions.  The ensuing trade war of tariffs and other trade inhibitions was basically a draw, but the results seem to have gotten both sides’ attention.

Second, they finally called “Bullshit” on the unsubtle anti-American bias in the United Nations’ social and economics agencies.  We had made a habit of paying most of the bills and getting the back of the hand in return (much to the delight of the world’s nattering left wing).  When the World Health Organization (who) sided with Red China’s “Move along, nothing to see here folks,” attitude toward a mysterious flu-like outbreak last Fall, the administration went big on sanctioning who. About time.  Let the whole damned sponging, America-hostile superstructure of the UN’s socioeconomic bureaucracy take note and look at where the money comes from.  

Third, they got plural covid-19 vaccines through research, development, and clearance in less time than it might usually take to clear a new technical report.  Credit where it is due; the multiple-channels-of-research strategy, a strategy counter to every bureaucratic principle, worked.  Keeping appropriate scrutiny and pressure for results on the regulatory process worked, albeit at some cost to the world’s confidence in the process.  Be interesting to see where the credit takers will be seen if something goes seriously wrong at scale.  I don’t think will happen, but somebody should be taking names now.

If you have other examples, put them in the comments and we’ll take a look at other things that might have gone right.

Tuesday, December 15, 2020

On being OBE

 Here’s where procrastination leads, the netherworld of obe.  A month ago I bleeted about the need for action on economic relief for people being driven to the brink by the pandemic and the Draconian health policies it has called forth.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1.6 million business establishments that had employed 26 million people at the beginning of 2020 suffered a government-mandated shutdown—about as Draconian a policy as most business operators can imagine.  While these 26 million people are not in any way in one-to-one correspondence with the 20-plus million workers on continuing unemployment insurance claims by late April and early May, they were a big part of the surge in that indicator from the more typical nearly 2 million in January. (About 4 out of 5 establishments that experienced a government-mandated closure either reduced employees’ hours or told them not to come to work.)

I was finally going to address the needed policy response to this catastrophe when this morning I hear that Congressional [language abuse trigger warning] leadership has developed a characteristically complex exit ramp from a loggerhead formed by one side wanting to include billions for state and local governments and one side to want protection of businesses from legal liability for damages inflicted by the coronavirus.   I’m not sure either of these panderings should be passed at all. But now that these events have overtaken me, here are some observations.

The latter is part of the much wider and more demanding look we are going to have to take at many aspects of unemployment insurance funding administration, bankruptcy law, bank regulation, credit scoring practices, financial institution stress testing, landlord-tenant law, credit card laws, gaap, wider liability (tort) reform, and things I cannot even imagine (much to my credit).  I see no reason it should be addressed now as a stand-alone.

The state and local government subsidies are going to have to be addressed sooner or later.  Right now, however, the humanitarian fraction of a percent of me says that the more urgent need is for an economic stimulus payment of about $900 to go to individuals and families starting at the very bottom of the income distribution and going until the amount proposed for subsidies to the governments responsible for actually executing the mandated closures mentioned above runs out ($160 billion by one report).  That sum would support a $900 boost for about half of the population.  Over time, I believe this would turn out to be a more frugal use of $160 billion.

As I note below, everything here is moving very quickly with a lot of poorly lubricated parts.  Even so, we should all expect to be obe more than once over the next 10 days.

 

Notes

UI data tool: Report r539cy, Employment & Training Administration (ETA) - U.S. Department of Labor (doleta.gov)  Make up your own mind about seasonally adjusted and no seasonally adjusted data.  Pandemics and government-ordered shutdowns know no season.

BLS Business Response Survey to the Corona Virus Pandemic: 2020 Results of the Business Response Survey : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (bls.gov) and related pages on www.bls.gov.

Stimulus bill numbers Coronavirus stimulus updates: Bipartisan relief bill released (cnbc.com).  But be aware this is a rapidly moving target.

Wednesday, December 9, 2020

Two sorries; but not too sorry

 

I am sorry for two things as I sit down to my workbench today; I have not posted in more than a week and I while I have said a good bit about what I don’t like or don’t think is useful, I have not said anything about what I’m for.  I can’t do much about the former, although you should be looking forward to my posts for last week (time travel humor).

So here we go on what the complacent Republican of A Slight Right thinks is a decent, and very modest framework for government, politics, and society.  The most general statement of the slight-right position is that government should be limited, frugal, competent, and honest.  Let’s expand upon these concepts a little.

The concept of government limited in any serious way in budget went out the window pretty close to a century ago.  The back-to-back crises of The Depression and World War II put the broader conception of the role of government initiated by the trustbusting, nature conserving presidents of 1901-1912 into overdrive.  These days, on-budget Federal outlays are about twice the share of GDP as they were in the biggest spending years of the New Deal.

A more galling sense of the refusal of government to be limited in its ambit results from every agency putting no limits on its mission.  My favorite test of whether someone understands the no-limits attitude of even the well-intentioned is to show them the map on page 64 of Older Americans 2020, a publication I consulted on, and asking if they understand from that map why so much of the middle of America sees the Federal government, in this case the Environmental Protection Agency (epa), as a pack of meddling fools with no decent sense of their boundaries.  Go to Older Americans 2020: Key Indicators of Well-Being (agingstats.gov) and have at it; no peeksies to next paragraph!

OK.  You probably noticed that from the wolf’s snout of Lake Superior west until Denver and stretching from the Canadian border south into Oklahoma it’s pretty hard to find a dark gold fill indicating a county with “poor air quality.”  Heck, there aren’t all that many counties in the light gold fill that denotes “other monitored counties.”  And the unmonitored counties are areas epa doesn’t even bother to set up a monitoring station in. 

So far, not much in the way of problems; we have good clean air out there in God’s country.  But then along comes epa’s Office of Atmospheric Programs, “Methane is a greenhouse gas.  The enteric fermentation [burps and farts] of your cows and pigs and chickens are melting the icecaps. Repent and pay.”  Another county stays red, even with the troop of red-ass baboons currently incumbent.

The next attribute we should have in government is frugality.  Frugal government, unfortunately, is an oxymoron.  The fact that there is a 42-page PowerPoint presentation on methane for me to draw upon in the preceding paragraph should be proof enough, but let’s not forget the $600 toilet seats and hammers that are still, somewhat unfairly, held up as examples of government’s counter-frugal soul.

The seats and hammers examples are somewhat unfair because they didn’t reflect the actual price of the items but their cost after overhead was arbitrarily allocated to them.  The ridiculous allocation of overhead reflects that the purpose of government accounting is “primarily concerned with making sure money was spent as Congress directed-not with making sure it was spent wisely.“ Spending as Congress directs is diametrically opposed to frugality.

The competence of government, or at least whatever credit it may ever have been given for competence, has inevitably taken a hit while a tribe of baboons has appeared out from under rocks to become the scum on top of the methane management pond of government.  If I had more imagination, I’d have mixed in more metaphors here.  I just ran out of energy thinking about the entire catastrophe.

The disaster wasn’t, I’m afraid, confined to the White House or other corridors of political debauchery.  At least one agency, generally regarded as a gold standard of competence, fell down under the incumbent administration’s management and appointments policies.  I always wondered why my colleagues at one of the many centers that control and prevent disease rolled their eyes when I proposed using what we call surveillance data from other centers.  Then I tried to follow the progress of the Covid-19 pandemic from the surveillance center in Atlanta.  Gave up and just went with the charts published every day in the newspaper.

Even more disastrously, the center responsible for developing the test kits that might have been useful for identifying and isolating early cases of the disease also went mediocre and the test was found to have flaws that made them unusable in a mass setting.  Delays in correcting that problem and a slow process for permitting the use of other tests let things get even farther out of control than they were due to issues completely outside the agency’s control.  (Red China’s cover up and who’s craven acceptance of it cost weeks of delay)

As far as honesty goes, there are increasingly frequent reports that the incumbent president will issue pre-emptive pardons to the members of his family that have were favored by his nepotism; and there are even rumors that he may try the preemptive pardon on his own acts while in office.

Enough is enough is enough said.

Notes

Cow methane Methane Emissions in the United States: Sources, Solutions & Opportunities for Reductions (epa.gov) 

Even the nasa high priests of science get in on the methane issue:  Which is a bigger methane source: cow belching or cow flatulence? – Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet (nasa.gov)

Government accounting:  The myth of the $600 hammer - Government Executive (govexec.com)


I was wrong to vote for Biden

 I see that it has been sometime since I last posted anything.  The primary reason was that I knew I had to make the confessional headline. ...